ALERT STATUS UPDATE – STS KROSA (T1329/29W) – #08

The alert status is now BLUE… No tropical cyclone is expected to affect Hong Kong…

IR 2013-11-03 0930Z (from NOAA)

IR 2013-11-03 0930Z (from NOAA)

MW 2013-11-03 0922Z (from FNMOC)

MW 2013-11-03 0922Z (from FNMOC)

Severe Typhoon KROSA (T1329/29W) continues to weaken… The storm is quasi-stationary at about 210 km south of Hong Kong…

Due to the increase in vertical wind shear and intrusion of dry and cool air… convection of KROSA has weakened significantly and rapidly during the past 18 hours… The circulation is elongated… The storm will go on losing strengthen as low to mid level northeasterly flow pushes the storm to the southwest today and tomorrow…

The ridge over Indochina Peninsula will gradually drive KROSA to the southwest… Northeast monsoonal flow will also help move the cyclone away from Hong Kong… KROSA will make landfall on central Vietnam… to the southeast of Da Nang… as a weakening Tropical Storm or even a Tropical Depression later tomorrow or in the morning of Tuesday…

Please note that northeasterly winds over the territory will be strong occasionally during the night as northeast monsoon strengthens…

ECMWF Ensemble Tracks 00Z (from ECMWF)

ECMWF Ensemble Tracks 00Z (from ECMWF)

<Forecast map not provided in this advisory…>

LATEST INFORMATION AT 10:00 UTC / 18:00 HKT:
=========================================
Position: 20.4N 114.4E (212 km SSE of HK) based on IR, MW and radar,
Maximum sustained winds: 100 km/h gusting 140 km/h (55G75KT),
Minimum SLP: 982 hPa.

24-HR FORECAST FOR 10:00 UTC / 18:00 HKT:
=====================================
Position: 17.7N 111.3E (592 km SSW of HK),
Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h gusting 100 km/h (40G55KT).

This is the final alert advisory on KROSA… Future information will be provided in ordinary blog posts…

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