<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

ECMWF Ensemble Forecast 2016-10-13 00Z

ECMWF Ensemble Forecast 2016-10-13 00Z

Tropical Depression 24W intensified into Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) in the evening…

Animated IR shows new bursts of convection developing around a defined circulation centre… Formative spiral bands can be found on the northwest quadrant of SARIKA…

An upper level low located near the Luzon Strait help boosting ventilation of SARIKA… The storm is expected to intensify steadily… into a Typhoon… over the warm Philippine Sea before making landfall on Luzon…

Low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA to the west or west-northwest towards the Philippines… SARIKA is forecast to make landfall on northern Quezon… or southern Aurora Province on Sunday…

Please note that a slightly equatorward track can place SARIKA closer to Bicol Region.. We will monitor the cyclone closely…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should prepare for TC conditions as soon as possible… Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… Residents in Eastern Visayas and southern parts of Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Sunday early morning to Sunday afternoon

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-13 21:45 local time

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