<<Special Information for the Philippines - #3>>

IR 2016-10-14 0920Z (from RAMMB)

IR 2016-10-14 0920Z (from RAMMB)

Severe Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) is moving west slowly… edging closer to Catanduanes…

The CDO of SARIKA expanded and deepened noticeably in the past 3 hours… Outer rainbands are already affecting parts of Samar and Catanduanes… Obviously SARIKA is intensifying… The maximum sustained wind speed is estimated to be about 110 km/h (60 kts) (10-min)…

Upper level ventilation is good… With warm SST… SARIKA is expected to intensify into a Typhoon soon…

The low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA steadily to the west or west-northwest towards the Philippines… The storm is forecast to pass very close to Catanduanes… and just north of Camarines tomorrow… Landfall on Quezon Province is expected on Sunday…

Please note that a slightly equatorward track can place SARIKA directly over Catanduanes and Camarines tomorrow… We will monitor this closely…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should prepare for Typhoon conditions as soon as possible… DAMAGING Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… SARIKA may become a ddestructive Typhoon given the very high SST and recent strengthening trend… Residents in Eastern Visayas / Mimaropa and southern parts of Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Sunday morning

Alternative Scenario: 
Expected time of landfall on Camarines :  Saturday afternoon

At 5 p.m…. Virac reported SLP of 998.4 hPa…

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-14 18:15 local time

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