Happy new year!!
6 years have passed since the establishment of PTCC… (and >10 yrs for former HKTCMC)
Thanks for your support and we’ll continue to provide information and warnings on TC in 2012…
The West Pac is rather calm at this moment… Scattered showers are affecting the seas around Palau and Yap…
IR 2012-01-05 1401Z (from NRL)
17 years after the loss of Kim Il Sung… his son Kim Jong Il died at 69 due to heart attack… marking the end of his iron-fist rule over North Korea…
May peace arrive in the Korean Peninsula……
VIS 2011-12-17 0757Z (from NRL)
Tropical Storm WASHI (1121/27W) has moved west-northwest and has entered the Sulu Sea… There are signs of weakening as the storm accelerates… Cloud top temperatures of a small region of convection near the centre are around -70 degrees Celsius…
Environmental conditions are still favourable for intensification… WASHI may gain strength again within the next day… Later as WASHI heads further to the west… intense northeasterly shear will cause a decrease in the storm’s intensity…
WASHI will move westward across Palawan and the South China Sea… then it should make a west-southwestward turn and approach Malaysia…
Heavy rain has taken nearly 200 lives in Mindanao… People in that region should pay attention to the local warnings from PAGASA…
Tropical Storm WASHI has made landfall on Davao Oriental, Philippines in the afternoon… It is now located near 8N 125E… moving rapidly westward across the island…
WASHI has strengthened into a 40kt Tropical Storm… Strong convection is still able to wrap tightly around the centre although the storm is overland… There is good outflow but vertical wind shear is strong in the South China Sea due to northeasterly surge… WASHI is not expected to intensify significantly… It should probably maintain TS strength…
Japanese Numerical Guidance for WASHI 2011-12-16 06Z
Movement forecast is easy this time… WASHI will move steadily to the west across the southern South China Sea in the coming 48 to 72 hours… then turning west-southwest towards Malaysia… Models are in good agreement…
People in southern and central Philippines should pay attention to the local warnings issued by PAGASA…
IR 2011-12-15 1113Z (from NRL)
Tropical Depression 27W has intensified into Tropical Storm WASHI (1121)…
WASHI is slowly strengthening… Satellite appearance of the storm has improved noticeably… Convective bands wraps more than 0.75 on log10 spiral closely into the circulation centre… Upper level outflow remains good… Vertical wind shear is still weak and favourable for development… WASHI should go on intensifying before it crosses the Philippines and moves into the South China Sea where intense northeasterly flow prevails…
Japanese Numerical Guidance for WASHI 2011-12-15 06Z
WASHI is located near 8N 131E… or about 400km west of Koror, Palau… The storm is forecast to move westward steadily… Landfall on Mindanao can be expected tomorrow…
People in southern and central Philippines should take precaution against strong winds and heavy rain…
IR 2011-12-13 1230Z (from NRL)
Tropical Depression 27W has formed southeast of Yap… It’s moving to the west at around 6N 143E… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be 45 km/h (25 kt)… A region of deep convection has developed over the past 6 hours… covering the depression’s low level circulation centre…
CIMSS satellite analysis shows a good outflow channel to the north… Vertical wind shear in that region is below 10 kt… Environmental conditions are favourable for development… TD 27W may become a Tropical Storm as it moves westward rapidly into southern/central Philippines…
At 1251 UTC / 2051 HKT, Yap reported a sea level pressure of 1010.1 hPa…
Tropical Depression 26W over the South China Sea is moving west-southwest near 8N 111E while maintaining its strength… Convection is limited and the circulation centre is exposed…
The system should remain weak and continue to approach Malaysia in the coming 48 hours…
IR2 2011-12-12 1230Z (from NOAA)
Surface observation and satellite analysis suggest that 94W is now a Tropical Depression (26W by PGTW)… Convection has increased but easterly shear is still pushing the convection to the west…
There is a poleward outflow channel… and vertical shear is decreasing… Slight development may be possible in the coming 24 hours but TD 26W is not expected to become a Tropical Storm…
At 2000 HKT / 1200 UTC, Truong Sa (Vietnam) reported northerly winds of 58 km/h ( 31 kt)… with a sea level pressure of 1005.3 hPa… a 2.4 hPa drop in the past 24 hours…
IR 2011-12-11 1130Z (from NRL)
Tropical Disturbance 94W over the South China Sea remains weak… Although the low level circulation centre is well-defined, convection is disorganized and displaced to the south…
94W is expected to move west-southwest in the next couple of days… Significant development is unlikely…
Strong northeast monsoon is prevailing over the Spartly Islands…
At 2000 HKT / 1200 UTC, Truong Sa (Vietnam) reported northerly winds of up to 54 km/h (29 kt)…
VIS 2011-12-10 0330Z (from NRL)
A low level circulation centre (Tropical Disturbance 94W) is observed near 12N 116E… VIS imagery shows it’s partly exposed with major convection located in the northwestern quadrant… Strong northeast monsoon is bringing Gale Force winds to the South China Sea…
94W is expected to move west-southwest in the coming few days… approaching southern Vietnam and the Gulf of Thailand… Slight intensification is also anticipated…
At 0800 HKT / 0000 UTC, Song Tu Tay (Vietnam) recorded a sea level pressure of 1006.8 hPa…
香港天文台現時生效警告
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