<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

VIS 2016-10-17 0650Z (from HKO)

VIS 2016-10-17 0650Z (from HKO)

Typhoon HAIMA (T1622/25W/LawinPH) is centred at about 1560 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao… The cyclone is moving west-northwest over the Philippine Sea… in the general direction of northern Luzon…

HAIMA is a dangerous Typhoon… A small but ragged eye… which is surrounded by a BLK ring… is observed on IR and VIS… The maximum sustained wind speed is estimated to be about 150 km/h (80 kts) (10-min)… Raw T# was 6.2 at 06:30 UTC…

Good outflow and high sea surface temperatures support further intensification… HAIMA can reach an intensity of 185 km/h (100 kts) or above in 2 days…

The ridge to the north of HAIMA will move the cyclone west-northwestward at about 22 to 25 km/h… The Typhoon may make landfall on northeastern Luzon… likely Cagayan Province… on Thursday morning…

Friends in Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should be prepared for Typhoon conditions late Wednesday and Thursday… DESTRUCTIVE Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of HAIMA…

Expected time of landfall on Cagayan:  Early Thursday morning

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-17 15:20 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #4>>

VIS 2016-10-15 0150Z (NRL)

VIS 2016-10-15 0150Z (NRL)

Severe Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) is now a Typhoon… The centre of storm is found just north-northeast of Catanduanes…

A cloud-filled eye is now observed on VIS imagery… Virac radar reveals SARIKA’s tightly curved inner rainbands… The maximum sustained wind speed near the eye is estimated to be about 130 km/h (70 kts) (10-min)…

Upper level ventilation remains good… SARIKA is expected to intensify further today… reaching a max intensity of 150 km/h (80 kts) or above prior to landfall…

The low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA to the west-northwest towards Central Luzon… SARIKA will pass very close to… just north of… Catanduanes in the next few hours… The cyclone will then make its way to Polillo Island… Landfall on Quezon or Aurora Province is expected early tomorrow morning…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon / southern parts of Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should be prepared for Typhoon conditions… DAMAGING Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… SARIKA is becoming a dangerous Typhoon… Residents in Eastern Visayas / Mimaropa should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Early Sunday morning

At 10 a.m…. Virac reported SLP of 993.8 hPa… More than 400 mm of rainfall was recorded…

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-15 10:55 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #3>>

IR 2016-10-14 0920Z (from RAMMB)

IR 2016-10-14 0920Z (from RAMMB)

Severe Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) is moving west slowly… edging closer to Catanduanes…

The CDO of SARIKA expanded and deepened noticeably in the past 3 hours… Outer rainbands are already affecting parts of Samar and Catanduanes… Obviously SARIKA is intensifying… The maximum sustained wind speed is estimated to be about 110 km/h (60 kts) (10-min)…

Upper level ventilation is good… With warm SST… SARIKA is expected to intensify into a Typhoon soon…

The low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA steadily to the west or west-northwest towards the Philippines… The storm is forecast to pass very close to Catanduanes… and just north of Camarines tomorrow… Landfall on Quezon Province is expected on Sunday…

Please note that a slightly equatorward track can place SARIKA directly over Catanduanes and Camarines tomorrow… We will monitor this closely…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should prepare for Typhoon conditions as soon as possible… DAMAGING Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… SARIKA may become a ddestructive Typhoon given the very high SST and recent strengthening trend… Residents in Eastern Visayas / Mimaropa and southern parts of Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Sunday morning

Alternative Scenario: 
Expected time of landfall on Camarines :  Saturday afternoon

At 5 p.m…. Virac reported SLP of 998.4 hPa…

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-14 18:15 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #2>>

VIS 2016-10-14 0150Z (from NRL)

VIS 2016-10-14 0150Z (from NRL)

Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) has further strengthened into a Severe Tropical Storm…

The circulation centre of SARIKA is found on the eastern portion of the CDO located northeast of Samar Island… Formative spiral bands are developing on the northwest quadrant of SARIKA… The storm appears not symmetric at this early stage of development…

Upper level ventilation is good… With warm SST… SARIKA is expected to intensify… into a Typhoon… over the warm Philippine Sea before making landfall on Luzon…

The low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA steadily to the west or west-northwest towards the Philippines… The storm is forecast to pass just north of Catanduanes and Bicol Region tomorrow… and make landfall on Quezon Province… or southern Aurora Province on Sunday…

Please note that a slightly equatorward track can place SARIKA over Catanduanes and Bicol Region.. We will monitor this closely…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should prepare for Typhoon conditions as soon as possible… Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… SARIKA may become a dangerous Typhoon given the very high SST… Residents in Eastern Visayas and southern parts of Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Sunday morning

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-14 11:00 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

ECMWF Ensemble Forecast 2016-10-13 00Z

ECMWF Ensemble Forecast 2016-10-13 00Z

Tropical Depression 24W intensified into Tropical Storm SARIKA (T1621/KarenPH) in the evening…

Animated IR shows new bursts of convection developing around a defined circulation centre… Formative spiral bands can be found on the northwest quadrant of SARIKA…

An upper level low located near the Luzon Strait help boosting ventilation of SARIKA… The storm is expected to intensify steadily… into a Typhoon… over the warm Philippine Sea before making landfall on Luzon…

Low to mid level steering ridge should push SARIKA to the west or west-northwest towards the Philippines… SARIKA is forecast to make landfall on northern Quezon… or southern Aurora Province on Sunday…

Please note that a slightly equatorward track can place SARIKA closer to Bicol Region.. We will monitor the cyclone closely…

Friends in Bicol Region / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should prepare for TC conditions as soon as possible… Hurricane Force winds will be observed along the path of SARIKA… Residents in Eastern Visayas and southern parts of Cagayan Valley / Cordillera AR / Ilocos Region should also be aware of the heavy rain and strong winds…

Expected time of landfall on Quezon / Aurora:  Sunday early morning to Sunday afternoon

The above info is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-13 21:45 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #3>>

VIS 2016-10-06 0050Z (from NRL)

VIS 2016-10-06 0050Z (from NRL)

Tropical Depression 99W (JulianPH) has intensified into Tropical Storm AERE…

Basco reported wind speed up to 72 km/h (20 m/s) in the early morning… Sea level pressure was below 996 hPa…

AERE is a tiny system… A small region of convection persists over the partially exposed low level circulation centre…

TS AERE is expected to intensify slowly as it leaves the Luzon Strait…

Friends in Batanes and northwestern coast of Luzon are reminded that showers will continue to affect the region today…

At 9 a.m… Eluanbi Buoy reported sustained northeasterly winds of 48 km/h…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-06 09:50 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #2>>

VIS 2016-10-05 0800Z (from NOAA)

VIS 2016-10-05 0800Z (from NOAA)

Tropical Disturbance 99W  has intensified into a Tropical Depression… PAGASA named it JulianPH…

Overall structure of TD 99W is improving… but the low level circulation centre remains partially exposed… Convection is mainly found in the western semicircle…. over the Luzon Strait…

Gradual intensification is expected as TD 99W moves west-northwest across the Strait… It should become a Tropical Storm within 24 hours…

Friends in Batanes and northern Luzon are reminded that winds and showers will increase tonight and tomorrow…

Basco reported sea level pressure of 1006.0 hPa at 2 p.m. local time…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-05 17:00 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

VS 2016-10-04 0540Z (from NRL)

VS 2016-10-04 0540Z (from NRL)

Tropical Disturbance 99W is consolidating slowly over the Philippine Sea… The circulation remains elongated but there is persistent convection around it…

Computer models indicate gradual strengthening in the next 2 to 3 days… A Tropical Depression may form…

This low pressure system is forecast to move west-northwest into the Luzon Strait or its vicinity on Thursday…

Friends in Batanes and northern Luzon are reminded that winds and showers will increase Thursday and Friday… Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow will also bring showers to central Philippines…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-10-04 14:50 local time

(VIS from NRL)

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #6>>

 

VIS 2016-09-14 0130Z (from CWB)

VIS 2016-09-14 0130Z (from CWB)

Typhoon MERANTI (T1614/16W/FerdiePH) is leaving Batanes… The cyclone is located at about 190 km NW of Basco now…

MERANTI will go on moving northwest away from the Philippines… It is expected to exit the PAR in the early afternoon…

Please note that Gales may still affect parts of Batanes today…

Meanwhile… Typhoon MALAKAS (T1616/18W/GenerPH) will turn to the northwest and threaten Miyako and Yaeyama Islands… It won’t make landfall on the Philippines…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-09-14 09:50 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #5>>

IR 2016-09-13 1630Z (from CWB)

IR 2016-09-13 1630Z (from CWB)

Typhoon MERANTI (T1614/16W/FerdiePH) is passing N of Batan Island… Itbayat Island is in MERANTI’s eye now…

 
At midnight local time… Basco Radar reported SLP of 935.4 hPa… North-northwesterly winds reached 144 km/h (40 m/s)…
 
MERANTI continued to gain strength this evening… The eye is perfectly well-defined and warm… Maximum sustained wind speed near the eye is estimated to be about 225 km/h (120 kts) (10-min)… Minimum sea level pressure is around 890 hPa…
 
MERANTI should be keep its strength in the next 12 hours as it crosses Batanes… It should then start weakening due to slightly unfavourable environmental conditions over the SCS and proximity to Taiwan
 
Typhoon MERANTI will go on moving west-northwest steadily across the Luzon Strait along the southern edge of the sub-tropical ridge extending into the East China Sea… The eye of MERANTI will move over Itbayat Island in the next couple of hours…
 
There may be storm surge of 2.0m of above in Batanes… especially on the Batan and Itbayat Islands… Please take extra care… Destructive Hurricane Force winds will affect the region… Friends in northern Philippines should also be prepared for TS conditions… with strong winds and heavy rain… Take all necessary precautions IMMEDIATELY if you are in Batanes or along the northern coast of #Luzon… You should be reading this in a sheltered location…
 
This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…
 
2016-09-14 01:00 local time