25W north of Sarawak…

Posted at by Jams

ASCAT Descending Pass 2011-12-04

A Tropical Disturbance (upgraded to TD 25W by PGTW) is strengthening over the southern part of the South China Sea… ASCAT pass showed 25kt southwesterly winds north of Sabah, Brunei and Sarawak…

Convection is sheared to the west… Overall organization isn’t that good… Slight development may be expected in the coming few days as the system moves near southern Vietnam… then the Gulf of Thailand or the Indian Ocean later…

At 12 UTC / 20 HKT, Truong Sa (Vietnam) reported sea level pressure of 1008.8 hPa…

91W near Palau and Yap…

Posted at by Jams

ASCAT Descending Pass 2011-11-13

Tropical Disturbance 91W is located near 6N 139E within a monsoon trough… ASCAT pass revealed a weak but defined low level circulation centre… Convection associated with 91W is bringing unsettled weather to the northwestern quadrant of this circulation…

91W is expected to travel to the west… crossing the Philippines and entering the South China Sea later this weak… Significant development is unlikely in the near future…

TC 01M close to Marseille…

Posted at by Jams

VIS 2011-11-09 12Z (from sat24)

Over the Mediterranean… the rare TC 01M has moved northwest over the past 24 hours… putting itself closer to the southern coast of France…

01M intensified into a 45kt Tropical Storm earlier today… Since then it has been showing signs of weakening… with the low level circulation centre being displaced resulting in a tilted vertical structure… Convection has also weakening noticeably…

Numerical models suggest further weakening of this storm… however… heavy rain and strong gusts may continue to affect the southeastern coast of France… including Montpellier… Marseille and Nice… as 01M goes on edging closer to the coast…

At 12:00 UTC… Marseille reported sustained easterly winds up to 52 km/h  (28 kt) and gusts up to 74 km/h (40 kt) …

ALERT STATUS UPDATE – LPA 24W – #5

Posted at by Jams

The alert status is now BLUE..
No tropical cyclone is expected to affect Hong Kong…

Tropical Disturbance 24W located near Hainan Island is moving to the east… weakening at the same time…

The probability of TC formation is near 0%…

Due to the large pressure gradient…. Strong Force winds can be expected in the coming 24 hours…. occasionally reaching Gale Force on highlands and over offshore waters…

This is the last alert status update on 24W…

The rare Mediterranean TC 01M!!!!!

Posted at by Jams

VIS 2011-11-08 1100Z (from sat24)

Storm chasers around the world are now chasing a rare good-looking cyclone located south of France… over the Mediterranean Sea…

This is the first storm to be coded 01M… “M” stands for Mediterranean for sure…

EDZW Surface Analysis 2011-11-08 06Z

ASCAT scan and surface observations reveal the system has winds over 65 km/h near the centre… The storm is believed to possess a warm core… that it can be classified as a Tropical Storm…

TS 01M will be moving slowly around the region near France and Italy in the next 24 to 48 hours…

ALERT STATUS UPDATE – LPA 24W – #4

Posted at by Jams

The alert status is GREEN…
Hong Kong may be affected by a tropical cyclone in the coming future…

Tropical Disturbance 24W is located near 17N 110E… It is quasi-stationary over the sea south of  Hainan Island…

The low level circulation centre of 24W is fully exposed… Significant intensification is however unlikely… The system should remain weak in the next couple of days… The chance of becoming a Tropical Depression is rather low…

This low pressure system will gradually move east-northeast over the northern South China Sea… and should pass south of Hong Kong on Thursday…

Due to the large pressure gradient…. Strong Force winds can be expected in the coming 24 to 48 hours….

Members of the public in Hainan and Guangdong Provinces should be prepared for possible heavy rain and Gale Force gusts along the coast…

The next alert advisory is scheduled for 12:00 UTC / 20:00 HKT (2011-11-09).

ALERT STATUS UPDATE – LPA 24W and LPA 99W – #3

Posted at by Jams

The alert status is GREEN…
Hong Kong may be affected by a tropical cyclone in the coming future…

Tropical Disturbance 24W (former 98W; upgraded to a Tropical Depression by PGTW) is located at around 17N 110E… It is moving to the north… approaching Hainan Island…

Over the past 3 hours, the organization of 24W has worsened… The system may strengthen into a Tropical Depression within the next day or so… Significant intensification is however unlikely…

24W is expected to continue its approach to Hainan Island in the coming 12 to 24 hours… Afterwards, a northeastward turn is forecast… 24W should pass south of Hong Kong on Wednesday…

Winds in Hong Kong will pick up because of increasing pressure gradient…. Strong Force winds can be expected in the coming 48 hours…. Rain will be heavy occasionally…

Members of the public in Hainan and Guangdong Provinces should be prepared for possible heavy rain and Gale Force gusts along the coast…

Meanwhile… Tropical Disturbance 99W is moving slowly near Dongsha Dao… The chance of becoming a Tropical Depression is low…

The next alert advisory is scheduled for 07:00 UTC / 15:00 HKT or 12:00 UTC / 20:00 HKT.

ALERT STATUS UPDATE – LPA 24W and LPA 99W – #2

Posted at by Jams

The alert status is GREEN…
Hong Kong may be affected by a tropical cyclone in the coming future…

Tropical Disturbance 24W (former 98W; upgraded to a Tropical Depression by PGTW) is located at around 17N 110E… It is moving to the north… approaching Hainan Island…

A region of strong convection has developed over the low level circulation centre… Dvorak analysis gives a DT of 2.0…

LPA 24W may strengthen into a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours… Significant intensification is however unlikely…

The system should move north and continue its approach to Hainan Island in the coming 24 hours… Afterwards, a northeastward turn is forecast… 24W should pass south of Hong Kong on Wednesday…

Winds in Hong Kong will pick up because of increasing pressure gradient…. Strong Force winds can be expected in the coming 48 hours or so…. Rain will be heavy occasionally…

Members of the public in Hainan and Guangdong Provinces should be prepared for possible heavy rain and Gale Force gusts along the coast…

Meanwhile… Tropical Disturbance 99W is moving northwest slowly near Dongsha Dao… The chance of becoming a Tropical Depression is low…

The next alert advisory is scheduled for 17:00 UTC / 01:00 HKT or 06:00 UTC / 14:00 HKT.

ALERT STATUS UPDATE – LPA 99W – #1

Posted at by Jams

The alert status has been upgraded to GREEN… 

A Tropical Disturbance (99W) has crossed Luzon and entered the South China Sea…  Convection has become slightly better organized but significant development is unlikely…

The system should move westward or west-northwestward in the coming 48 hours across the northern part of the South China Sea. Winds in Hong Kong will pick up because of increasing pressure gradient. Strong Force winds can be expected.

The next alert advisory is scheduled for 07:00 UTC / 15:00 HKT or 13:00 UTC / 21:00 HKT.