<<Special Information for the ‪#‎Philippines‬ - #3>>

VIS 2016-07-30 0300Z (from NRL)

VIS 2016-07-30 0300Z (from NRL)

 
NIDA (T1604 / 06W / ‪CarinaPH‬) is now a Severe Tropical Storm… moving northwest towards northern #Luzon… It is located just off the coast of Cagayan Valley…
 
Deep convection started to build and increase over the low level circulation centre yesterday … Since then NIDA has been strengthening steadily… Microwave imagery reveals its thick and tightly curved bands… Maximum sustained wind speed is estimated to be about 90 km/h (50 kts)…
 
STS NIDA has accelerated a bit after making a northwestward turn towards northern Luzon… The storm is forecast to make landfall on ‪#Cagayan‬ Valley in the afternoon…
 
There is good upper level outflow to support further intensification… Sea surface temperatures are very high around the Philippines (about 30 degrees)… In the next 12 hours or so… development will be limited by land interaction with Luzon… NIDA will strengthen further into a Typhoon after it enters the South China Sea…
 
Friends in northern Philippines… especially Cagayan Valley / ‪‎CAR‬ / ‪‎Ilocos‬ Region / Central Luzon should also be prepared for TS or Typhoon conditions… Be prepared for heavy rain and flashfloods…
 
Expect time of landfall on Cagayan‬: Sunday afternoon
 
Expect time of leaving Luzon: Sunday late night to Monday early morning
 
At noon… Aparri reported sea level pressure of 994.3 hPa…
 
This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…
 
2016-07-31 12:50 local time

<<Special Information for the ‪#‎Philippines‬ - #2>>

Tropical Depression 06W (pre-‪#‎NIDA‬ / ‪#‎CarinaPH‬) is moving north-northwest over the Philippine Sea… It is located at ~230 km away from the coast of eastern ‪#‎Samar‬…

TD 06W is trying to consolidate… VIS shows a partially-exposed circulation centre… Deep convection is found on the northwestern quadrant… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 55 km/h (30 kts)…

TD 96W will move north-northwest initially… followed by a gradual turn to the northwest towards northern ‪#‎Luzon‬ as the cyclone gains latitude… Landfall on ‪#‎Cagayan‬ Valley is possible late Sunday or early Monday… In case the turn begins later than expected… the storm will move over ‪#‎Batanes‬ instead…

06W will then head west-northwest or northwest towards Guangdong, ‪#‎China‬…
There is good upper level outflow to support further intensification… 96W should become TS #NIDA later today… It may make landfall over Luzon as a Severe Tropical Storm…

Friends in northern Philippines… especially Cagayan Valley / ‪#‎CAR‬ / ‪#‎Ilocos‬ Region should also be prepared for TS or Typhoon conditions… The rest of the country should be alerted that heavy showers and flashfloods may affect you…

Expect time of landfall on #Cagayan / ‪#‎Isabela‬: Sunday evening to Monday morning

Expect time of leaving Luzon: Monday afternoon

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-07-30 11:00 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

ASCAT 2016-07-29 0051Z

ASCAT 2016-07-29 0051Z

Tropical Disturbance 96W has strengthened into a Tropical Depression… named CarinaPH by PAGASA…

ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed a rapidly improving low level structure… observed also on VIS animation and latest microwave scans… The Depression is broad and consolidation takes time… Sprial convection is developing around the centre… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 45 km/h (25 kts)…

TD 96W is forecast to move northwest or north-northwest initially… towards northern Luzon… Landfall is possible on Sunday… We will update you from time to time…

There is good upper level outflow to support further intensification… 96W may become TS #NIDA within 48 hours… Friends in northern Philippines should also be prepared for TS or Typhoon conditions during the weekend… As the system is large… the rest of the country should be alerted that heavy showers and flashfloods may affect you…

Expect time of landfall on Cagayan Valley: Sunday afternoon to early Monday morning

Expect time of leaving Luzon: Monday morning to Monday afternoon

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2016-06-26 13:30 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #3>>

VIS 2016-06-26 2350Z (from NRL)

VIS 2016-06-26 2350Z (from NRL)

Tropical Depression 97W (AmboPH) moved over Luzon during the night and it’s now located over the South China Sea… 
 
97W’s high forward speed hindered development… During the past few hours… disorganized convection persisted around a mid-level circulation centre found west of Luzon… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 45 km/h (25 kts)…  It’s interesting to note that JMA kept their Gale Warning at 8 a.m. while PAGASA downgraded 97W into a Low Pressure Area…
TD 97W should move west-northwest or northwest towards southern China…
The system should remain rather weak…
This is the final special report for the Philippines regarding TC 97W…
This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…
 
2016-06-27 09:40 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #2>>

IR 2016-06-26 1300Z (from NOAA)

IR 2016-06-26 1300Z (from NOAA)

Tropical Depression 97W (AmboPH) is moving towards Luzon… 
 
There has been no improvement in the organisation of TD 97W… Scattered convection persists around a mid-level (or possible low-level) circulation centre… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 45 km/h (25 kts)… 
 
TD 97W should move west-northwest or northwest towards Aurora Province… Landfall is expected early tomorrow morning…
Significant intensification is unlikely to occur… The system should weaken after making landfall over mountainous Luzon… Yet friends in northern Philippines should pay attention to possible strong gusts and heavy showers tonight and tomorrow…
Expect time of landfall on Aurora: Early Monday morning
Expect time of leaving Luzon: Monday night
 
This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…
 
2016-06-26 22:05 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #1>>

VIS 2016-06-26 0450Z

VIS 2016-06-26 0450Z

Tropical Disturbance 97W has strengthened into a Tropical Depression… named AmboPH by PAGASA…
 
Convection increased in the past 18 hours as the system moved northwest quite rapidly… Scattered thunderstorms appear to be rotating around a mid-level centre… Latest ASCAT pass missed the region… There may be a weak LLCC developing… Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 45 km/h (25 kts)…
 
TD 96W is forecast to move west-northwest or northwest towards Luzon
 
Significant intensification is unlikely… yet friends in northern and central Philippines should also be alerted that there may be strong gusts and heavy showers in the next couple of days…
 
This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…
 
2016-06-26 13:30 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #7>>

IR 2015-12-16 1400Z (from NOAA)

IR 2015-12-16 1400Z (from NOAA)

Strong southerly wind shear is killing TS MELOR (T1527/28W/NonaPH)… Convection is sheared to the north as vertical wind shear increases to above 30 kts… MELOR is weakening rapidly… Maximum wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 85 km/h (45 kts) (10-min)…

MELOR will continue to weaken in the next few days due to dry air intrusion and strong vertical wind shear… The cyclone will accelerate to the southwest soon…

This is the final special report for the Philippines regarding TC MELOR…

Please note that Disturbance 97W (PAGASA TD OnyokPH) is intensifying and it may affect southern Philippines on Friday and Saturday… Gale Warning has been issued by JMA…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2015-12-16 23:00 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #6>>

VIS 2015-12-16 0100Z (from NOAA)

VIS 2015-12-16 0100Z (from NOAA)

Typhoon MELOR (T1527/28W/NonaPH) weakens as it drifts northwest into the South China Sea…

The structure of MELOR was destroyed by Mindoro Island… The storm lost its eye and the eyewall… Convection is now sheared to the north as vertical wind shear increases… Maximum wind speed around the centre is estimated to be about 120 km/h (65 kts) (10-min)…

MELOR will continue to weaken in the next few days due to dry air intrusion and strong vertical wind shear… The cyclone will accelerate to the southwest soon…

Friends in Mimaropa / Calabarzon / NCR / Central Luzon should note that heavy showers and strong winds may continue to affect you today…

Please also note that Disturbance 97W is intensifying and it may affect southern Philippines during the weekend…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2015-12-16 09:50 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #5>>

VIS 2015-12-15 0120Z

VIS 2015-12-15 0120Z

Bad news… Typhoon MELOR (T1527/28W/NonaPH) refused to lose strength… It will hit Mindoro VERY SOON…

The storm appears to be re-strengthening over the Sibuyan Sea… The eye became clear and warmed once again after leaving Bicol…  Rainbands in the CDO are intense and wrap tightly around the eye… Preliminary intensity fix from JTWC at 00Z was 230 km/h (125 kts) (1-min)… Latest Raw T# at 01Z was 6.4…

MELOR will hit Mindoro as a destructive storm… The storm should lose strength significantly due to increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion after passing Mindoro Island…

TY MELOR will make landfall on Oriental Mindoro SHORTLY… The cyclone will turn to the southwest over the South China Sea tomorrow as northeast monsoon intensifies…

MELOR is a destructive Typhoon… Friends in Mimaropa must take all necessary precautions to prevent loss immediately… Stay in shelters… Destructive winds are expected along the path of the storm’s eye… Residents in Western Visayas / Calabarzon / NCR should also pay close attention to the storm… Be prepared for heavy showers… flashfloods and strong gusts…

Expected time of leaving Mimaropa: Wednesday

Please also note that Disturbance 97W is intensifying… It may affect the country during the weekend…

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2015-12-15 10:10 local time

<<Special Information for the Philippines - #4>>

IR 2015-12-14 1130Z (from RAMMB)

IR 2015-12-14 1130Z (from RAMMB)

Typhoon MELOR (T1527/28W/NonaPH) made landfall on Sorsogon in the late afternoon… The storm is now centred near northern Ticao… Spiral ranbands around the eyewall remain intense but the eye is becoming cloud-filled gradually…  Maximum sustained wind speed near the centre is estimated to be around 175 km/h (95 kts) (10-min)…

MELOR will weaken slowly as it moves over central Philippines due to land interactions… Yet… it will keep its Typhoon status for 24 hours or more…

TY MELOR is forecast to move westward across the Sibuyan Sea… towards Mindoro Island… where it will meet the intensifying northeast monsoon… The storm should lose strength significantly due to increasing wind shear later this week… At the same time… it will turn to the southwest over the South China Sea…

MELOR is still a destructive Typhoon… Friends in Eastern Visayas / Bicol Region / Calabarzon / Mimaropa must take all necessary precautions to prevent loss immediately… Stay in shelters… Typhoon conditions are expected along the path of the storm’s eye… Residents in Western Visayas / Central Visayas / NCR should also pay close attention to the approaching storm… Be prepared for heavy rain… flashfloods and strong winds…

Expected time of leaving Mimaropa: Wednesday

This is for reference only… Please always check also the latest official cyclone updates from PAGASA…

2015-12-14 20:05 local time